Pew study: Gun homicides in U.S. dropped nearly 50 percent over 20 years

Gun deaths have declined nearly 50 percent over past 20 years, even though most people believe otherwise (Atlantic …If you think gun violence has surged in recent years, then you’re firmly in the majority of Americans who share that opinion. However, according to a new statistical survey, you’re also wrong.

A new study published on Tuesday by the Pew Research Center says that gun homicides have declined by a full 49 percent since its peak in 1993. There has been an even steeper decline, 75 percent, in non-lethal crime victimization (without or without a crime) in the period between 1993 and 2010.

Centers for Disease Control Prevention statistics show that there were 11,078 gun homicide deaths in the U.S., compared with 18,253 deaths in 1993.

Non-fatal gun crimes dropped by 69 percent during that same period, according to a separate report from the Bureau of Justice Statistics that was also released on Tuesday.

However, the same Pew study finds that 56 percent of respondents believe that gun deaths are more frequent than they were 20 years ago, compared with just 12 percent who accurately said the rates had declined.

Still, there are some interesting findings in the study that do appear to back up fears about rising deaths and overall acts of gun violence. While describing more recent numbers as “statistically insignificant,” Pew does acknowledge that there appears to be a small uptick in gun violence numbers since 2008. In addition, the study found that vast majority of the drop in homicides took place in the 1990’s.

So, who or what is to credit for that decline? The roaring economic boom that took place through the second half of the 1990’s? The Federal Assault Weapons Ban legislation that was law from late 1994 through 2004? The dramatic increase in incarceration rates? A controversial 2001 paper even claims that legalized abortion is at least partially responsible for declining crime rates.

Pew says the data is inconclusive, writing, “Researchers have studied the decline in firearm crime and violent crime for many years, and though there are theories to explain the decline, there is no consensus among those who study the issue as to why it happened.”

“It’s hard to know what’s going on there,” D’Vera Cohn, senior writer at the Pew Research Center, told the Los Angeles Times.

Another interesting statistic from the study concerns gun ownership and homicide rates in the U.S. compared to the rest of the world. “Compared with other developed nations, the U.S. has a higher homicide rate and higher rates of gun ownership, but not higher rates for all other crimes,” the Pew study explains.

Other findings from the Pew Research Center study:

• Men and boys make up the vast majority (84% in 2010) of gun homicide victims. The firearm homicide rate also is more than five times as high for males of all ages (6.2 deaths per 100,000 people) as it is for females (1.1 deaths per 100,000 people).
• By age group, 69% of gun homicide victims in 2010 were ages 18 to 40, an age range that was 31% of the population that year. Gun homicide rates also are highest for adults ages 18 to 24 and 25 to 40.
• A disproportionate share of gun homicide victims are black (55% in 2010, compared with the 13% black share of the population). Whites were 25% of victims but 65% of the population in 2010. Hispanics were 17% of victims and 16% of the population in 2010.
• The firearm suicide rate (6.3 per 100,000 people) is higher than the firearm homicide rate and has come down less sharply. The number of gun suicide deaths (19,392 in 2010) outnumbered gun homicides, as has been true since at least 1981.

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Penn State applications down 9 percent this year

STATE COLLEGE, Pa. (AP) -- Population declines and concerns over how to pay for a college education contributed to a roughly 9 percent decline in applications to Penn State this year, university officials said.

There were nearly 54,000 applications for all Penn State campuses from potential first-year undergraduates applying to start this fall, according to figures provided to The Associated Press, down from the more than 59,000 applications received to start last fall.

The admissions office cited long-term demographic trends and economic concerns. Industry analysts also have found enrollment declines in many schools nationwide amid worries about the affordability of a college education.

"Affordability and cost are on the minds of families in determining where to go to college," Anne Rohrbach, executive director for undergraduate admission, wrote in an email this week. "The impact is greatest in the Northeast where the number of high school seniors is declining."

The school has not heard that the Jerry Sandusky scandal is a factor in the choices of high school seniors, university spokeswoman Lisa Powers said Thursday. She cited focus groups of college-bound seniors over the past year in which participants said the scandal had no bearing on their choices.

Sandusky, a former assistant football coach, was arrested in November 2011. He was convicted last summer of dozens of criminal counts of child sex abuse and sentenced to at least 30 years in prison.

"Most students and their parents just want to make sure that they receive a quality education and that in the end, they will be able to obtain a good job," Power wrote in a separate email. "I think Penn State is well known for its ability to deliver these two things, as well as its vast network of alumni that can assist new graduates in a job search."

Applications from Pennsylvania students were down about 6 percent to about 23,500. Applications from out-of-state students were down more than 11 percent to more than 30,000.

There were fewer high school graduates in Pennsylvania and a leveling of the rate of college-bound students, Rohrbach said.

Overall undergraduate applications rose slightly, by about 2 percent, the previous year, between 2011 and 2012.

Worries about how to pay for a school appear to be a nationwide concern. A survey of 300 colleges released by Moody's Investors Service in January found that enrollment fell in about half of colleges. That survey also found that about one-third of colleges were expecting tuition revenue this year either to decline or fail to keep pace with inflation. Virtually all colleges were seeing tuition revenue rise a few years ago.

Tuition at Penn State can depend on class standing, major and campus. Tuition for freshmen and sophomores this year at the main University Park campus in State College was $15,562 for the academic year for in-state students. Tuition nearly doubled to $27,864 for the year for out-of-state students.

Powers said there was no way to know everything that impacts a high school senior's decision.

"We all face a declining demographic combined with a really tight economy and concerns about costs, as well as a lot of questions being asked nationally about the value of a degree and significant declines in state funding," she said. "For higher education in general, these are big challenges that are being discussed on a regular basis."

As of this week, about 54 percent of students admitted for fall 2012 to the University Park campus were from Pennsylvania, up slightly from 53 percent last year.

Penn State has also named Johns Hopkins engineering school dean Nicholas Jones as its new executive vice president and provost, or chief academic officer. University trustees are expected to formally approve his hiring next week.

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States' aid to public colleges has fallen 28 percent since 2008

(Reuters) - State governments, which have been battling slow economic growth, cut aid to public colleges for five years and now spend 28 percent less per student than they did in 2008, according to a study published on Tuesday.

The reductions in every state except Wyoming and North Dakota average $2,353 for the 75 percent of undergraduates who attend public colleges and show few signs of easing soon, according to the study's lead writer, Phil Oliff of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

"The rate of decline has moderated somewhat, but we don't see clear signs that states are reinvesting in their higher education systems," Oliff said in a conference call with reporters. "They are coming out of an enormous hole."

Revenues for state governments have risen for nearly three years, but are not matching the bounceback after previous recessions, with the rate of increase slowing in the 2012 third quarter, according to the Rockefeller Institute of Government.

The cuts by state governments range from nearly $4,800 annually per student in New Mexico to $561 in Alaska and have spurred tuition hikes at public colleges, staff cuts, larger classes and the elimination of courses and departments, the study said.

"Thirty-six states have cut funding by more than 20 percent, with 11 states cutting funding by more than one-third. Two states -- Arizona and New Hampshire -- have cut their higher education spending in half," the study said.

Florida, Oregon, Louisiana and Alabama were among states that pulled back most sharply on college aid, while New York, North Carolina and Maine made the smallest reductions in the years tracked in the study.

Tuition at four-year public colleges has grown on average by $1,850 a year, or 27 percent when adjusted for inflation, since the 2007-2008 academic year, the study said. Tuition in Arizona and California has shot up more than 70 percent.

Other big percentage hikes were in Florida, Georgia, Washington state, Hawaii and Alabama.

State policymakers need to ease away from tax cuts and to consider increasing revenues to reinvigorate their public colleges, the study said.

(Reporting by Michael Connor in Miami; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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States' aid to public colleges has fallen 28 percent since 2008

(Reuters) - State governments, which have been battling slow economic growth, cut aid to public colleges for five years and now spend 28 percent less per student than they did in 2008, according to a study published on Tuesday.

The reductions in every state except Wyoming and North Dakota average $2,353 for the 75 percent of undergraduates who attend public colleges and show few signs of easing soon, according to the study's lead writer, Phil Oliff of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

"The rate of decline has moderated somewhat, but we don't see clear signs that states are reinvesting in their higher education systems," Oliff said in a conference call with reporters. "They are coming out of an enormous hole."

Revenues for state governments have risen for nearly three years, but are not matching the bounceback after previous recessions, with the rate of increase slowing in the 2012 third quarter, according to the Rockefeller Institute of Government.

The cuts by state governments range from nearly $4,800 annually per student in New Mexico to $561 in Alaska and have spurred tuition hikes at public colleges, staff cuts, larger classes and the elimination of courses and departments, the study said.

"Thirty-six states have cut funding by more than 20 percent, with 11 states cutting funding by more than one-third. Two states -- Arizona and New Hampshire -- have cut their higher education spending in half," the study said.

Florida, Oregon, Louisiana and Alabama were among states that pulled back most sharply on college aid, while New York, North Carolina and Maine made the smallest reductions in the years tracked in the study.

Tuition at four-year public colleges has grown on average by $1,850 a year, or 27 percent when adjusted for inflation, since the 2007-2008 academic year, the study said. Tuition in Arizona and California has shot up more than 70 percent.

Other big percentage hikes were in Florida, Georgia, Washington state, Hawaii and Alabama.

State policymakers need to ease away from tax cuts and to consider increasing revenues to reinvigorate their public colleges, the study said.

(Reporting by Michael Connor in Miami; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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Man who took Romney "47 percent" video reveals himself

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Scott Prouty was at a fundraiser for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney last year as the bartender, and ended up secretly taping a video that changed the trajectory of the 2012 presidential campaign.

Prouty went public with his story on Wednesday after months of speculation as to who might have been the source of the video that dealt a body blow to Romney's campaign.

Last May at a Florida fundraiser, Romney said 47 percent of voters were dependent on government and "will vote for the president no matter what."

When Prouty handed the tape over to Mother Jones and the magazine published it in September, Romney was put on the defensive for weeks and never really recovered, losing to President Barack Obama on November 6.

"I didn't go in there with a grudge against Romney. I was more interested as a voter," Prouty told MSNBC.

Mother Jones also confirmed that Prouty was the person who taped the video.

He described himself as a "regular guy, middle class, hard-working guy" and was tending bar at the event which donors had paid thousands of dollars to attend.

Prouty said he was initially motivated to release the tape by a different comment that Romney had made in which he expressed interest in having his private equity firm buy a Chinese factory that employed 20,000 people who earned little money.

The news media seized on the 47 percent section of the speech. Prouty said he felt it changed the course of the election.

"I think it defined him at a critical point, defined him for exactly who he was," said Prouty.

He said he had no contact with the Obama presidential campaign over the tape.

"I voted for President Obama, but I'm actually (a) registered independent," he said.

(Reporting by Aruna Viswanatha and Steve Holland; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

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Man who took Romney "47 percent" video reveals himself

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Scott Prouty was at a fundraiser for Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney last year as the bartender, and ended up secretly taping a video that changed the trajectory of the 2012 presidential campaign.

Prouty went public with his story on Wednesday after months of speculation as to who might have been the source of the video that dealt a body blow to Romney's campaign.

Last May at a Florida fundraiser, Romney said 47 percent of voters were dependent on government and "will vote for the president no matter what."

When Prouty handed the tape over to Mother Jones and the magazine published it in September, Romney was put on the defensive for weeks and never really recovered, losing to President Barack Obama on November 6.

"I didn't go in there with a grudge against Romney. I was more interested as a voter," Prouty told MSNBC.

Mother Jones also confirmed that Prouty was the person who taped the video.

He described himself as a "regular guy, middle class, hard-working guy" and was tending bar at the event which donors had paid thousands of dollars to attend.

Prouty said he was initially motivated to release the tape by a different comment that Romney had made in which he expressed interest in having his private equity firm buy a Chinese factory that employed 20,000 people who earned little money.

The news media seized on the 47 percent section of the speech. Prouty said he felt it changed the course of the election.

"I think it defined him at a critical point, defined him for exactly who he was," said Prouty.

He said he had no contact with the Obama presidential campaign over the tape.

"I voted for President Obama, but I'm actually (a) registered independent," he said.

(Reporting by Aruna Viswanatha and Steve Holland; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

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State pension funding gap up 20 percent in 2012: Wilshire

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The recovery in the state pension system suffered a setback in 2012 as the huge funding shortfall in a large swath of state pensions swelled more than 20 percent, interrupting two years of improvement following the devastation of the financial crisis.

The shortfall in 109 of the nation's state pension plans, which guarantee retirement for millions of public workers such as police, firefighters, and teachers rose to $834.2 billion in 2012, up from $690.3 billion the previous year, according to a new report by Wilshire Consulting, a unit of independent investment management firm Wilshire Associates.

The report highlights the uphill struggle faced by many of the state pension plans nationwide and is a reminder that financially strained state governments will have to make some tough choices in order to make up the shortfall.

It also shows state pension fund managers are continuing to up their exposure to less conventional assets such as real estate, private equity, hedge funds and commodities as they try to boost their returns and diversify away from over exposure to volatile equities.

"The hit that was taken through the global financial crisis was significant and now they are on the road to looking at recouping that over the long term," said Steven Foresti, head of investment research at Wilshire. "But it will require without question significant contributions and adequate investment returns."

Collating timely data on state pension systems is hard as they report with different time frames. Wilshire's report focuses on 109 funds that reported data as of June 30 last year, and uses prior data for another 25 plans that reported earlier.

Wilshire notes that in the use of any sample there is the chance of statistical error and although the 109 funds with 2012 data are a sizable majority of the state plans in the survey, there will be a degree of variance from the entire plan cohort.

Sticking with the 109 plans, in 2007 before the financial crisis struck, state pension plans were 93 percent funded, up from being 81 percent funded in 2002 as stock markets rallied. In 2012 the total market value of their assets amounted to 69 percent of their liabilities, down from 73 percent in 2011.

Although that is much better than during the aftermath of the financial crisis when the funding ratio plummeted to 61 percent in 2009, the move in the wrong direction is a concern with levels still way below where they need to be. A healthy funding ratio is considered 80 percent or above.

ARE MANAGERS TOO OPTIMISTIC?

The length of time it takes pensions to report means Wilshire's analysis is necessarily backward looking.

The authors point out that the swelling shortfall is due to market volatility in the 12 months leading up to June 30 last year when most funds reported data. That was when the euro zone crisis was at its worst. Following strong performance in markets since then the pension are probably in better shape now, they said.

Still, given the bumpy ride that appears to be a feature of today's markets, the report is likely to reignite debate about whether managers are too optimistic when forecasting returns.

Wilshire estimates that the median state pension fund can expect an annual return of 6.9 percent. That is much less than the current median rate of 7.8 percent that pension use as long-run expected returns.

The report's authors acknowledge that their more modest assumptions assume risk-adjusted market returns and do not allow for higher returns that could be added by active money management. They also use a time horizon of 10 years rather than the 30-year time horizon that pension forecasters often use.

Even so, a closer look at the number reveals the scale of the task that many state pensions face.

Of 109 state plans, 95 percent are underfunded, with asset values less than their liabilities. The average underfunded plan has a ratio of assets to liabilities of just 68 percent.

The problem varies greatly across plans. Nine have assets with a market value less than 50 percent of their liabilities, 62 plans have less than 70 percent of liabilities and 81 plans have assets less than 80 percent.

Wilshire's report does not list individual plans although that data is publicly available.

The report shows managers continued to ditch U.S. equities last year in search of yield and diversification. Exposure to the asset class fell 13 percent through the middle of last year and total U.S. equity exposure across the plans stood at 28 percent, down from 41 percent since 2007.

The money coming out of U.S. equities has been flowing into non-U.S. equities, real estate, private equity, and other investments such as hedge funds and commodities.

This may be an attempt by fund managers to increase their exposure to more leveraged investments in an effort to meet return targets or reduce volatility across the fund by diversifying assets, according to the report.

"They all recognize that there will be short periods of time when that risk works against them but if they have the liquidity to stay in those positions and returns are adequate over the long run that will have the most emphasis in terms of what level of contributions will be required," said Foresti.

(Reporting by Edward Krudy; Editing by Tiziana Barghini and Sofina Mirza-Reid)

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